News

Update (March 8, 1:05 p.m. PT): Why Bloomberg stayed out

Want to know why former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg decided against launching an independent campaign for the presidency?

The media baron, a Republican with liberal views on most social issues, considered running chiefly to prevent GOP front-runner Donald Trump from reaching the White House. But as polling savant Nate Silver indicates with the electoral-vote map below, a Bloomberg campaign likely would have hurt the Democrats far more than the Republicans.

Update (March 8, 11:35 a.m. PT): The end of the GOP?

Republican insiders fear they are witnessing the destruction of their party, and they could be right. The two major parties have been adept at survival -- taking on new positions as times change, fighting off the worst ideas of their fringe elements. But major parties have disappeared before in this country. The Grand Old Party itself was born from the ashes of the 19^th century Whigs -- the party of President William Henry Harrison, iconic Senator Henry Clay and Abraham Lincoln's Secretary of State William H. Seward.

There's no denying that businessman and reality-TV star Donald Trump is changing the GOP as he brings out voters who don't typically support Republicans or usually don't even vote at all. Expanding a party's voter base is generally seen as a good thing, but exit polls show that in Trump's case the new voters tend to be nihilistic: they feel betrayed by the major parties and are angry at government and elected officials.

Trump's nativist appeals, as has been widely documented, also draw supporters who are even more objectionable to mainstream Republicans than incumbent-haters. Huffington Post reporters Ryan Grimm and Julia Craven point out that the Trump campaign is serving "as a welcoming committee of sorts to new racists hoping to enter the party."

Trump's rivals, meanwhile, want to woo at least some of the reality-TV star's voters. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich have repeatedly said they understand the frustration and fury of voters drawn to Trump and can provide solutions for them. And Florida Sen. Marco Rubio says his overwhelming win in Sunday's Puerto Rico primary "is evidence I can take conservatism to people who don't normally vote Republican."

March 8 election preview (6:30 a.m. PT): Trump makes 'electability' case

"A normal Republican cannot think of bringing in Michigan, and if you don't bring in Michigan, it's tough," Donald Trump said at a rally in the Wolverine State this week. "You have a very narrow road. But I'm going to bring in places like Michigan."

The Republican presidential front-runner is talking about the general election in the fall. The controversial businessman and reality-TV star has focused on his electability in the run-up to Tuesday's contests in Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii. He's had to, because over the weekend his rivals -- benefiting from various attacks on Trump including the late-night comedy show "Saturday Night Live" airing a mock "Racists for Trump" ad -- scored some momentum. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz beat Trump in Kansas and Maine. And Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, dismissing calls from Trump and Cruz to get out of the race, won convincingly in the territory of Puerto Rico.

So Trump has begun playing down (a little bit) the nativist appeals that have stirred outrage and talk instead about how he's the Republican presidential candidate most likely to best former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party's front-runner.

But he's not only relying on the "electability" issue. With Michigan the big prize on Tuesday, he also insists he will restore the U.S.'s manufacturing glory by dropping a 35-percent tariff bomb on U.S. companies that move factories overseas. Many economists believe this kind of big-time trade tax, assuming Trump could get it through Congress, would be disastrous, setting off a trade war that would blight the houses of all involved. But never mind that. Trump says the threat of a tariff is all that would be needed. Within a day or two of issuing the warning, Trump says, any CEO who was planning to shift production out of the U.S. would call him up at the White House.

"They'll say: 'Mr. President, we're moving back. Would you like us to move to Michigan?'" Trump said. "I'll say, 'Yeah, I really want you to move to Michigan.' And they'll move back."

Such outcomes might indeed be nothing more than a demagogic fairy tale Trump is spinning, a shout-out to the angry, disaffected voters who have fueled his campaign. But he's undeniably onto something important here. Income inequality -- and government's inability to do anything about it -- is a key part not just of the insurgent campaign Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is waging for the Democratic nomination. It's central to Trump's as well on the GOP side. Trump's most dedicated supporters, the think-tank Rand Corporation found, are those who answer yes to the following survey question: "People like me don't have any say about what government does."

In short, people increasingly believe that, whether a Republican or a Democrat is in the White House, the rich get richer and, thanks to corrupt politicians in Washington, D.C., the rest get the shaft.

That's why some Democratic insiders are agitating for Clinton to pick Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren as her vice president -- assuming, that is, Clinton is able to see off Sanders' primary challenge. Warren, the first head of President Obama's Consumer Protection Bureau, was the left's hero before Sanders launched his long-shot presidential campaign. (Indeed, liberal groups last year made a concerted effort to get her to join the race for the White House, but she demurred.)

Democrats on Tuesday go to the polls in Michigan and Mississippi, with Sanders trying to tamp down talk of Clinton's nomination being inevitable. Clinton leads Sanders 55 percent to 42 percent in the final Michigan polls, but Sanders is trending up. In the final Mississippi polls, Clinton holds a commanding lead -- up by some 40 percentage points in some surveys.

As for the Republicans, Trump led the final Michigan polls -- generally in the 30-36 percent range -- with Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich trailing in the low 20s. Trump appears to have significant leads in Idaho and Mississippi.

Kasich is the lone Republican still in the race who has yet to win a contest. But he's looking to gain late momentum for the March 15 primary in his home state by pulling a surprise in Michigan. Playing up his blue-collar roots, he believes he can cut into Trump's base. "If they can hear me, and what I've done, that's the ticket," he said this week. "I believe that if I can sit with some Trump people -- I won't get them all -- if I can sit with them, they're going to understand that I'm one of them."