Sunday, January 31, 2016

Clinton keeps slim edge over Sanders in latest Iowa Poll

12:49:00 AM By

Hillary Clinton has kept a tight grip on her slim lead over Bernie Sanders in the waning hours leading into the Iowa caucuses, a new Iowa Poll shows.
Clinton is the top pick for 45 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, with Sanders at 42 percent, The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll shows.
Clinton's support is up 3 percentage points from earlier this month, and Sanders' is 2 percentage points higher.
“This race is as tight as can be,” said David Axelrod, a national political strategist. “If Bernie Sanders had momentum headed into the final month, the race now is static and essentially tied."
“It comes down to who can grind it out on the ground on Monday night,” said Axelrod, a senior political commentator for CNN and an architect of Barack Obama's successful 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.
The results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
"Turnout is everything," Axelrod said. "If turnout is within a normal range, Hillary likely wins. If it goes higher, approaching 200,000, it will be a good night for Bernie."
Clinton leads Sanders among Democrats who say they will definitely hit caucus sites, while Sanders leads among Democrats who say they will probably caucus.
Clinton, a former first lady and former secretary of state, wins a majority among caucusgoers who are 65 and older, Catholics and moderates. Sanders, a U.S. senator representing Vermont, wins a majority of those under 35, first-time caucusgoers and political independents.
"Clinton's voters are more certain and much more likely to have caucused before," Axelrod said. "Bernie's organizational task, counting so heavily on first-time caucusgoers — many of them young — is greater."
Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley snags 3 percent of likely caucusgoers' support. He had 4 percent support in early January.
Clinton is helped by supporters who think the system works reasonably well for people working hard to get ahead, the poll shows.
Sanders benefits from supporters who believe the system is rigged against all but the very rich and powerful.
Overall, about two-thirds of Democrats believe the system works against them.
“That theme is probably why this race is so close,” said Ann Selzer, who conducts the Iowa Poll.


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